The forecast remains negative, according to a press release from the agency.
As a key factor for the rating downgrade, it is indicated the likelihood of that foreign private lenders will suffer substantial losses due to the government plan for securities restructuring as for those issued by the government and for those covered by the state guarantee.
The negative forecast reflects expectations of Moody’s that the level of external debt of Ukraine will remain very high, despite the debt restructuring and plans to carry out reforms.
“While negotiations on specific details of the restructuring take place only now, Moody’s believes that the likelihood of problems with the securities and, therefore, default on the national debt is almost one hundred percent”, – the agency said.
Ukrainian authorities try to negotiate with international lenders to develop a plan of the debt restructuring of 15.3 billion USD during four years.
In 2015, Ukraine has to pay for its obligations 7.7 billion USD. According to the IMF, Kyiv may “win” 5.2 billion USD due to the restructuring schemes. Ukraine has a debt to Russia of 3 billion USD, which Moscow gave Kyiv in 2013, by that time represented by President Viktor Yanukovych and Prime Minister Mykola Azarov.